Fall Pipeline Math: Working Backwards from Your Q4 Goal

You want to close 10 deals in Q4.

Let's work backwards to figure out what you need to do today.

The Q4 Timeline

Q4 is October, November, December.

That's 13 weeks from today.

Your actions this week determine your Q4 results.

The Closing Math

To close 10 deals in Q4:

You need 15-20 accepted offers (accounting for fallout) You need 30-40 showing appointments You need 60-80 buyer consultations and listing presentations You need 120-160 lead conversations

Work the numbers backwards.

The Weekly Breakdown

13 weeks left in Q4.

To get 160 conversations:

Week 1-4: 15 conversations per week Week 5-8: 12 conversations per week Week 9-13: 10 conversations per week

Front-load your activity.

September's Role

September is your setup month.

The appointments you book in September become October closings.

The leads you generate in September become November deals.

The Lead Generation Goal

To get 15 conversations per week:

30-40 dials per day 10-15 touches to warm leads 5-10 new lead inquiries

This is daily activity, not weekly.

The Appointment Goal

15 conversations should generate:

3-5 appointments per week 12-20 appointments per month

These appointments are buyer consultations and listing presentations.

The Conversion Rates

Appointments to contracts:

2-3 appointments per signed agreement 20 appointments = 7-10 signed contracts 10 contracts = 5-7 closings (accounting for fallout)

Know your numbers. Track your ratios.

The September Plan

This month you need:

60 conversations 20-25 appointments 8-10 signed contracts

Hit these numbers and Q4 takes care of itself.

The Daily Activity

Monday through Friday:

8am-10am: Lead generation (30+ dials) 10am-12pm: Appointments 1pm-3pm: Follow-up and admin 3pm-5pm: More appointments or lead generation

This schedule delivers the numbers.

The Lead Sources

Where your 60 conversations come from:

20 from database calls 15 from new online leads 10 from expired/FSBO outreach 10 from past client reactivation 5 from open houses

Diversify your sources.

The Pipeline Stages

Track leads in these stages:

New inquiry First contact made Appointment scheduled Appointment completed Under contract Closed

Move people through stages. Don't let them stall.

The Weekly Review

Every Friday at 4pm:

How many conversations did you have? How many appointments did you book? How many contracts did you sign? What's your closing projection for Q4?

Adjust next week based on this week's results.

The Fallout Factor

Not every contract closes:

Inspection issues Appraisal problems Financing falls through Buyer cold feet

Plan for 30-40% fallout between contract and closing.

The October Setup

By end of September you should have:

10-15 active buyers 3-5 listings coming soon 5-8 contracts pending 20+ warm leads for October

This creates Q4 momentum.

The November Goal

November is your biggest month:

Target: 4-5 closings Why: Deals from September activity Focus: Thanksgiving deadline pressure

Push hard in September to cash in during November.

The December Reality

December slows down:

Target: 2-3 closings Why: Holiday scheduling delays Focus: Setting up January pipeline

Don't chase December deals. Build January business.

The Math Check

If your numbers are off track:

More conversations needed? Increase daily dials. More appointments needed? Improve your conversion. More contracts needed? Sharpen your presentation.

Fix the weak point.

The Activity Tracker

Create a simple spreadsheet:

Week | Conversations | Appointments | Contracts | Closings

Fill it in every Friday.

This shows your pipeline health.

The Projection Formula

Current activity level x historical conversion rate = projected closings

If the projection is below your goal, increase activity now.

Your Next 7 Days

Calculate how many conversations you need.

Block time for daily lead generation.

Track every conversation.

Book appointments from those conversations.

Review Friday and adjust for next week.

Q4 results come from September activity. Start today.

Tiffany Hampton is a seasoned real estate leader and MAPS Coach with over two decades of experience helping agents succeed through leadership, coaching, and innovative strategy. As the founder of AgentGrowth365.com, Tiffany delivers proven systems, tools, and training that empower agents and market center leaders to grow with clarity and purpose. Whether you're looking to hit 24 transactions, streamline your coaching systems, or lead your business with impact, AgentGrowth365 offers a full suite of solutions designed to meet today's challenges and scale tomorrow's success.